Wednesday, August 6, 2008


Much of the content of this site is centered around my experience in the construction industry where I was exposed to some of the inner workings. My premise has been that prices will be down 30% on average when the smoke clears and that there was $10 trillion in home equity and $10 trillion in mortgages at the peak. Yielding a loss of 30% on $20 trillion, or $6 trillion, half of which would be borne by the banks ($3 trillion). I think I may have upped the estimate to a 35% loss somewhere along the way ($3.5 trillion).

The observation that the Bloomberg types are floating a $1 trillion loss number is why I get worried about the stability of the world financial system. Because of these worries, I have taken steps to protect my family in the case that I may be right. Reading some of my back entries, especially the ones drafted at or above certain blood-alcohol levels, one could think I was a militant.

I am not a militant, I obey the laws and pay my taxes. Just in case anybody was wondering. But if the laws go away in a spectacular failure of the government, which I hope they don’t, I will be prepared to provide for food security and physical security for my family.

Count me also on the side of those who would fight to return to a Constitutional form of government.

With that disclaimer, all of which is true, here’s a link to a guy in the business who seems to be more pessimistic about the global economic outlook than me. One of his observations that I found interesting is that the foreclosed housing inventory is in worse shape than I had been predicting (30-35%).

He points out that foreclosures also include tens of thousands of dollars in administrative fees, and physical damage from the evictee.

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