Thursday, February 14, 2008

Don't Doubt Me

Bill quoted the New York Times on 24OCT07:

"The loss in total real estate wealth is expected to range from $2 trillion to $4 trillion, depending on how far home prices fall, according to several economists."

And noted:

I think it may be worse than the ‘several economists’ estimate. At the peak, there was around $9 trillion in home equity and $10 trillion in mortgages. Entry level homes are now starting to move in a place I know at a ~35% discount relative to the peak. Most of that 35% comes out of home equity, not mortgage debt.

Extrapolating the 35% data point, around 70% of American home equity has gone away. That’s $7 trillion, not 2 to 4.

And now this report from the Bank of America today.

"The meltdown in the US subprime real-estate market has led to a global loss of 7.7 trillion dollars in stock-market value since October, a report by Bank of America showed Thursday."

For the record, this thing is not over.

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