Thursday, May 8, 2008

American Dreams

Kevin Phillips makes a good argument that the real unemployment rate is 9 to 12%, the real inflation rate is 7-10%. He details how the books have been cooked for political purposes from Lyndon Johnson going forward:

Phillips seems to be right. On the bright side, that 30-yr mortgage at 5-6% interest is a bargain. Housing is now selling below the cost to build it. It’s a great time to be in the market to buy a house. Watch the Case-Schiller composite index, it has a two-month delay:

When that index falls less than one percent drop a month for two months in a row (it’s currently dropping at 2.7%/month), the market is near bottom. That is the time to buy.

Rural real estate remains a good long-term investment. If I were buying a house, I’d choose one in an agricultural region away from population centers.

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