Kevin Phillips makes a good argument that the real unemployment rate is 9 to 12%, the real inflation rate is 7-10%. He details how the books have been cooked for political purposes from Lyndon Johnson going forward:http://www.tampabay.com/news/article473596.ece
Phillips seems to be right. On the bright side, that 30-yr mortgage at 5-6% interest is a bargain. Housing is now selling below the cost to build it. It’s a great time to be in the market to buy a house. Watch the Case-Schiller composite index, it has a two-month delay:
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CS_HomePrice_History_022603.xls
When that index falls less than one percent drop a month for two months in a row (it’s currently dropping at 2.7%/month), the market is near bottom. That is the time to buy.
Rural real estate remains a good long-term investment. If I were buying a house, I’d choose one in an agricultural region away from population centers.
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