Monday, October 6, 2008

Theory to Practice

Gee, who could have seen this coming?

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke may find the next fronts of the financial crisis to be just as chilling as last month's downfall of Wall Street titans: its spread to corporate America and state and local governments.

Question: In what manner can a sitting Mayor of a failing city put out self-serving news so blatantly?

Answer: In a poorly veiled manner, and not for long.

It feels like things are accelerating. Gold is up today, but I don’t understand why it is still off its highs. The federal government will not be able to extract more tax revenue out of the country, so the only option that I can see is to print money and deflate the currency. The fact that the Euro is falling relative to the dollar reflects Europe’s weakness.

America has many advantages over Europe going forward. Europe is out of energy while America is sitting on hundreds of years of liquid fuel in the form of oil shale (the secret to unleashing this energy resource is kicking an unknowable number of desks).

As socialism never works, Europe is probably twenty years ahead of us, and European immigrant populations are more hostile to freedom than their American counterparts, expect democracy in its current form to fail first in Europe. People talk of England and the BNP, but Brick Oven is going to go ahead and predict that the first country will be Sweden.

Swedes have historically been the most trusting and generous of Europeans. But they are descendents of Vikings. I talked to a professional Swedish lady recently and she is pissed.

Malmo.

Saturday, October 4, 2008

Haiti

Jean-Jacques Dessalines followed George Washington and was the second man to establish a free Republic in the Western Hemisphere. He was the first to grant equal rights to all Citizens.

Dessalines made his name in the Haitian Revolution as a take-no-prisoners leader, who routinely burnt villages to the ground and is reported to have slaughtered up to 10,000 mulattos, who were fighting against the French at the time. Dessalines’ Yorktown was called the Battle of Vertieres, which was fought in 1803. A French detachment lost their supply line due to renewed war in Europe with England, and the detachment surrendered to a force led by Dessalines, who then declared Haiti an ‘all black nation’.

Dessalines, a mulatto, reportedly established a ruling elite of mixed-race French-speaking Haitians. Unlike George Washington, he then declared himself to be Emperor, banned white land ownership, ordered the execution of all royalists, and ordered all Haitians to work in either the army or as plantation laborers.

Despite Dessalines’ work order, the agriculture that had made Haiti the Caribbean’s most valuable colony vanished. After two years as Emperor, Dessalines was assassinated and his body mutilated.


Haiti is the Western Hemisphere’s poorest country and has been plagued by political violence throughout its entire history. I visited Haiti a few years ago. The blank look in people’s eyes is spooky.

Link.
Link.
Link.

Bloomberg Begins to Lose It

Bloomberg News Service States:

“…[California’s] looming cash shortage, brought on by the global credit crisis that dried up the supply of money for loans.”

In an earlier version of my economic model, I had the opportunity to make payroll for years and years. It was an experience, but it never included asking for loans before payday. Maybe that is because my business was simple. We provided a product in exchange for money. We charged more than it cost us to produce the product. Part of our revenue stream went to payroll. The difference between our revenue and our costs was our profit, from which I provided for my family.

California’s cash shortage has nothing to do with the global credit crisis. It has to do with the fact that they spend more money than they take in. Which has a lot to do with the fact that their high tax rates have chased business and productive people to Nevada and Arizona. And maybe, just maybe, something to do with tens of millions of illegal aliens who work under the table but use state services nonetheless.

But Bloomberg attributes California’s budget problems to a ‘credit crisis’, which I’ve seen no evidence of. Something tells me that the New York City budget might just be having some problems it’s own self. Not that that would influence Bloomberg’s news reporting, or his decision to abandon term limits, or anything like that.

An economic downturn, now and then, can be a healthy thing. Grip that podium, Mr. Mayor.

Friday, October 3, 2008

Not At Harvard

I have no intention of making this a cut-and paste forum, but these excerpts from Plato’s Republic deserve to be reproduced in full. Socrates is the one talking and the man answering with short responses is Adeimantus. These are passages from Book 8 of 10.

And so tyranny naturally arises out of democracy, and the most aggravated form of tyranny and slavery out of the most extreme form of liberty?

As we might expect.
That, however, was not, as I believe, your question-you rather desired to know what is that disorder which is generated alike in oligarchy and democracy, and is the ruin of both?

Just so, he replied.
Well, I said, I meant to refer to the class of idle spendthrifts, of whom the more courageous are the leaders and the more timid the followers, the same whom we were comparing to drones, some stingless, and others having stings.

A very just comparison.
These two classes are the plagues of every city in which they are generated, being what phlegm and bile are to the body. And the good physician and lawgiver of the State ought, like the wise bee-master, to keep them at a distance and prevent, if possible, their ever coming in; and if they have anyhow found a way in, then he should have them and their cells cut out as speedily as possible.

Yes, by all means, he said.
Then, in order that we may see clearly what we are doing, let us imagine democracy to be divided, as indeed it is, into three classes; for in the first place freedom creates rather more drones in the democratic than there were in the oligarchical State.

That is true.
And in the democracy they are certainly more intensified.

How so?
Because in the oligarchical State they are disqualified and driven from office, and therefore they cannot train or gather strength; whereas in a democracy they are almost the entire ruling power, and while the keener sort speak and act, the rest keep buzzing about the bema and do not suffer a word to be said on the other side; hence in democracies almost everything is managed by the drones.

Very true, he said.
Then there is another class which is always being severed from the mass.

What is that?
They are the orderly class, which in a nation of traders sure to be the richest.

Naturally so.
They are the most squeezable persons and yield the largest amount of honey to the drones.

Why, he said, there is little to be squeezed out of people who have little.
And this is called the wealthy class, and the drones feed upon them.

That is pretty much the case, he said.
The people are a third class, consisting of those who work with their own hands; they are not politicians, and have not much to live upon. This, when assembled, is the largest and most powerful class in a democracy.

True, he said; but then the multitude is seldom willing to congregate unless they get a little honey.
And do they not share? I said. Do not their leaders deprive the rich of their estates and distribute them among the people; at the same time taking care to reserve the larger part for themselves?

Why, yes, he said, to that extent the people do share.
And the persons whose property is taken from them are compelled to defend themselves before the people as they best can?

What else can they do?
And then, although they may have no desire of change, the others charge them with plotting against the people and being friends of oligarchy?

True.
And the end is that when they see the people, not of their own accord, but through ignorance, and because they are deceived by informers, seeking to do them wrong, then at last they are forced to become oligarchs in reality; they do not wish to be, but the sting of the drones torments them and breeds revolution in them.

That is exactly the truth.
Then come impeachments and judgments and trials of one another.

True.
The people have always some champion whom they set over them and nurse into greatness.

Yes, that is their way.
This and no other is the root from which a tyrant springs; when he first appears above ground he is a protector.

Commentary;
The Democratic Party now largely consists of groups of idle spendthrifts. The Republican Party is a combination of the wealthy and the third class Plato calls ‘the people’. It is good to know that Plato considered ‘the people’ to be the most powerful class.

I believe that the 2nd Amendment makes ‘the people’ more powerful today than they were in Plato’s time. There are more private firearms than there are voters in America-2008. These firearms are the best chance of forever breaking Plato’s cycle of oligarchy-democracy-tyranny.

I concur with Plato’s statement that idle spendthrifts:

‘are the plagues of every city in which they are generated,’ and that societies should

‘have them and their cells cut out as speedily as possible.’

Which is probably why Harvard University has their students stop reading Plato’s Republic at line 341b2, ahead of this discussion.*

* Conclusion made by noting a reference to section 511b6 in another review, where the “unhypothetical principle” is discussed in Book 6 of 10. It appears that Harvard only covers the first four Books. I think Harvard students are tough enough to be allowed to read Book 8, but only if they dare. Ha ha ha.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

Reflection and Sensation

I ripped these two terms off from a Thomas Jefferson line I’ll have to update later. He was referring to his impression that Europeans are governed by reflection and Africans are governed by sensation. This tracks fairly well with my life experience, with a few exceptions.

Gwen Ifill is another datapoint. How could a black woman, with a pro-Obama book scheduled to come out on inauguration day, who has a financial interest in him winning, accept the moderator job? It has to do with the sensations of money, attention, and ethnocentricity. It demonstrates the same absence of self-reflection that Thomas Jefferson wrote of hundreds of years ago.

As we are presumably still a country of fair and open debate, Gwen Ifill should step down. Instead she plays the race card:

"Do you think they made the same assumptions about Lou Cannon (who is white) when he wrote his book about Reagan?" said Ifill, who is black. Asked if there were racial motives at play, she said, "I don't know what it is. I find it curious."

Brick Oven supports the call for Palin to open the debate congratulating Ifill on her book deal and asking her what the title of the book is going to be.

The name of Ifill’s book is Breakthrough: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Corruption and IQ


The Corruption Perception Index (CPI) is generated by Transparency International, an organization dedicated to fighting government corruption. Here is their complete 2008 listing of countries from least corrupt to most corrupt. Listed below are the 10 least corrupt governments and the 10 most corrupt governments along with their national IQ score.

10 Least Corrupt Governments
Denmark; 98
New Zealand; 100
Sweden; 101
Singapore; 103
Finland; 97
Switzerland; 101
Iceland; 98
Netherlands; 102
Australia; 98
Canada; 100

10 Most Corrupt Governments
Congo; 65
Equatorial Guinea; 59
Chad; 69**
Guinea; 66
Sudan; 72
Afghanistan; 82**
Haiti; 67
Iraq; 87
Myanmar*
Somalia; 67**

* No Easily Correlated Data
** Data averaged from surrounding countries

Conclusion: Government corruption is directly related to the intelligence of the population. Behavior rooted in reflection takes higher mental abilities than behavior rooted in sensation. This is why only high-IQ societies are capable of honest self-government.

p.s. I don't know why the links are not working. I'll try them later.

Price Schiller Data

The new Price-Schiller Index data is in:

Cities Up:
Denver
Minneapolis
Seattle

No Change (change of less than 1 index point):
Dallas
Portland
Cleveland
Charlotte
Detroit
Boston
Chicago
Atlanta
Tampa

Cities Down:
Pheonix
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Francisco
Washington DC
Miami
Las Vegas
New York