tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2593827099626424590.post2759408024463810825..comments2024-03-24T00:34:46.422-07:00Comments on Brick Oven: Article Review: Peak Oil and PopulationUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2593827099626424590.post-72782894340217741682008-05-08T10:55:00.000-07:002008-05-08T10:55:00.000-07:00Thanks for the comment Paul; I’m honored that you ...Thanks for the comment Paul; I’m honored that you read my thoughts. It makes sense that self-sufficient regions of the world would unite to defend their resources when things go south. I know it’s a stretch, but before the rise of nation-states, people used to organize around wealthy families.Billhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18101988524539053900noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2593827099626424590.post-36282656403176831912008-05-08T08:59:00.000-07:002008-05-08T08:59:00.000-07:00Thanks for the review, Bill. I have a couple of c...Thanks for the review, Bill. I have a couple of comments.<BR/><BR/>The first is that I ignored a lot of not-ready-for-prime-time technologies in that article. I didn't mention thorium or fast breeder reactors, I didn't go into tidal power, I ignored electric cars etc. The underlying assumption was that things would start to come apart before any of those hopeful technologies reached fruition.<BR/><BR/>I still think that's going to happen. I estimate that we have maybe 5-10 years before the converging crisis that's nibbling away the marginal regions of the world right now expands to affect the entire globe in one way or another.<BR/><BR/>My second comment is that one of the major failings I see now in that article was my over-aggregation of the effects. The end result was an apocalyptic vision of a uniform, amorphous, global collapse, that is probably not representative of the way things will ultimately unfold. There will be much more regional variation, with different influences being the primary drivers in each region.<BR/><BR/>I have tried to rectify that in the later series of articles you can find in the "Really Depressing" section of my web site. The news isn't any better, but it's somewhat more realistic.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com